Virtual Worlds Will Replace Social Networks

I admit it, the hype bubble is over on virtual worlds. It’s been long since the time when publications flocked towards news of companies doling out millions to virtualize themselves in Second Life, or businessmen investing hundreds of thousands of dollars on virtual properties in Project Entropia. Virtual worlds, however, are thriving and research shows us that they are not far from becoming a mass market, mainstream leader for the foreseeable future. The question is, who is going to be the next massive internet success? There are always new game-changers that redefine markets, like Facebook itself. I predict a virtual world takes the reins. It’s the next logical step in the evolution of technology.

The Technology Hype Cycle is a concept of Gartner Research. I’ll let them describe it in their own words:

“Gartner Hype Cycles provide a graphic representation of the maturity and adoption of technologies and applications, and how they are potentially relevant to solving real business problems and exploiting new opportunities. Gartner Hype Cycle methodology gives you a view of how a technology or application will evolve over time, providing a sound source of insight to manage its deployment within the context of your specific business goals.”

So it allows businesses to make solid decisions regarding the potential growth and adoption of technologies. Check.

For 2010, Gartner placed public virtual worlds smack dab in the center of the “Trough of Disillusionment”, meaning it was either done or adoption would continue as products evolved. Backing up this assessment of the current state of virtual worlds was the failure of a few notable worlds such as vSide, There.com and Vivaty. Having grown up during the “Peak of Inflated Expectations” vSide (back up and running on fumes) and There.com couldn’t hang on during the fall into the Trough of Disillusionment.

According to KZero Worldswide, virtual world registrations grew 25% last year and now sit at nearly 1.2 Billion accounts. I think that clearly shows that we are entering the “Slope of Enlightenment”, meaning “More instances of how the technology can benefit the enterprise start to crystallize and become more widely understood.” This rise in growth and adaptation was where Facebook was 4 years ago.

Electronic games have grown from toys to pixels to vast, realistic massively multiplayer worlds. Movies, music, radio… everything has moved towards digital and graphical (where applicable). Notice how all the high-budget films are now released in 3D?

The internet is no different. Look how far it has come! Everything is more interactive and graphical. It’s not a matter of if virtual worlds will be the next big players, it’s how soon and who it’s going to be. Facebook is ultra social, but once people figure out that instead of looking at a 2D website and chat, they can actually “go” hang out with their friends, why stick with Facebook anymore?

If you’ve read this far, I don’t have to tell you about Moore’s Law and the rate that computing is expanding. Powerful computers now fit in your pocket and broadband internet access is reaching 500 million people. The technology is now cheap enough and the mass market has become tech savvy.

Over the next 4 years, I foresee social networks like Facebook beginning to merge more and more into 3D experiences either through development or acquisitions, it’s the only way they are going to be able to compete with whatever company is out there right now preparing to swoop in with a much more rich and engaging social experience than Facebook.

Who is going to take the lead is speculative of course, it might be Facebook if they are smart. Or will it be a site like Habbo that already sports 150 million registered users (that’s the size of Facebook right now)? I doubt it. What’s coming has already evolved past Habbo. Maybe it will be a site like Onverse that is smaller, but already has full integration between virtual world and social network? It just takes a spark, right? Your guess is as good as mine, but history tells us that there is always someone else that will emerge as the dominant player, and it will probably be a site like Onverse that no one is expecting until it’s too late.

Regardless of who it is, virtual worlds are showing massive growth during a time when people are looking for a rich, rewarding, social experience online. According to the hype cycle, it’s all uphill from here.

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